Sky News::Tim Marshall is Great

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Rebel Rebel Your Base Is A Mess

Tim Marshall March 21, 2011 11:28 AM

We know who the Libyan rebels are, we know what they want, we don't know what they will become.

Their base is Benghazi, but they come from different parts of Libya, from different backgrounds, and when the beginning is at an end, they will almost certainly have different aims.

Benghazi was where the Transitional National Council came into being. After initial confusion, Mustafa Abdel-Jalil emerged as the leader, an Executive was formed, and a military chief emerged.

Jalil is a former Gaddafi loyalist who served as Justice Minister in a country not known for its sense of the rule of law. When he first announced himself as being in charge he was challenged by a Benghazi lawyer called Abdel-Hafidh who eventually settled for being official spokesman. The man tasked with talking to the foreign powers is Ali al-Essawi,who resigned as ambassador to India at the beginning of the uprising. Jalil brought on board an ally, Mahmoud Jebril, and, after a few days of squabbling, the former Interior Minister, General Abdel Fattah Younis appeared as the man in charge of what the rebels would like to be an army, but is in fact a disorganized, rag tag poorly equipped militia. Given that Younis is the man with the guns, it is probable that inside the TNC his voice is as important as that of Jalil.

All that unites them, and the other 30 or so figures in the TNC, is a desire to overthrow Gaddafi. After that? No-ones sure.

To achieve their initial aims they've borrowed the American,.British, French and other air forces. This has halted the rebel's collapse, frozen the battle lines, and allowed them to start planning. They will watch with delight as Gaddafi's air defences are taken apart, and hope that his tanks and ground troops are hit in large numbers despite Arab League reservations.

Then, armed by various powers, including possibly Egypt, they will train and prepare to head towards Tripoli. That looks an impossible task. The rebels haven't really 'fought' for any of the cities they 'took'. If army units had not joined them, they couldn't have taken anything. Turning these few units and militias into a proper army capable of
operating across hundreds of miles and through several cities, is not something which can be achieved in a matter of months, if at all.

The longer the stalemate lasts, if that is what is coming, the more likely that the Benghazi base will fracture. The rebels are desperate to tell outsiders that there are no Al Queda types among them, but that flies in the face of the fact that in Iraq Al Queda's second biggest supply of foreign fighters were from Libya. It also doesn't take into account that the radical Islamist movement of the Sanussi is based in the east.

Among the TNC there will be genuine democrats, Islamists, putative dictators and others. They want a unified country with Tripoli as the capital, but if they can't get it, then what do they then want? They'll want different things - a divided Libya? Mogadishu on the Med? The possibilities are endless. And there's no clear end in sight.

As our boys get into another fight into the middle east, i wonder what Obama's exit strategy is for Libya, Afganistan, and Iraq. He hasn't provided his citizens with any clear answers.
It seems that the Muslim Brotherhood has already taken a footing in the new Egyptian setup.

God help us, and be with the Troops on the ground, air, and sea

MAutopsy wrote: i wonder what Obama's exit strategy is for Libya,

Obviously, the troops will be exiting in an orderly fashion, behind the endless convoy of oil tankers..

The whole Middle east has become a Vietnam style war for us. Our troops are getting picked off here and there like squirrels. I have lost several friends and previous classmates to this.
I understand war is the necessary evil. The problem we have is were afraid to delcare war on anyone, leaving the battlefield to become a politicians game. Had we declared war in Iraq and Afganistan, I believe we would be farther along in those countries. American Politicians believe they need to be the gerenals, and not let the generals on the ground make the calls.

edit: but the simple fact remains that this is over oil. as a result, we are paying almost $4/ Gal where i live

MAutopsy wrote: The whole Middle east has become a Vietnam style war for us. Our troops are getting picked off here and there like squirrels. I have lost several friends and previous classmates to this.
I understand war is the necessary evil. The problem we have is were afraid to delcare war on anyone, leaving the battlefield to become a politicians game. Had we declared war in Iraq and Afganistan, I believe we would be farther along in those countries. American Politicians believe they need to be the gerenals, and not let the generals on the ground make the calls.

Processive UK Governments have cut millitary spending, therefore logic dictates cut in foreign millitary deployment.

Unfortunately, GB doesn't have enough Army, Navy or Airforce to be called "Great" anymore or to call the shots anywhere..

E.g, US Fires approx 115 Cruise missiles on opening night of Coalition operations against Libya, how many has UK fired since then ?

In Iraq/Afghanistan, at one stage, UK forces did'nt have enough bullet proof vests, helicopters, armoured personnel carriers, for the troops in theater, whilst US troops where so well equipped, they even had Mobile McDonalds.

However, not wishing to "loose face" in Nato/UN, UK persists in despatching highly trained troops, with substandard levels of equipment and budget.

MAutopsy wrote: $4/ Gal where i live

smiley36


current price we're paying is equivalent to $8.37

saul wrote:

MAutopsy wrote: $4/ Gal where i live

smiley36


current price we're paying is equivalent to $8.37

Yup..

UK needs to discover Oil reserves somewhere accessible like the Isle of Man. smiley36

That could then finance the Millitary to "acquire" "further" oil from "other" countries, as is the the "policy" of "other" "Governments". smiley2

@ saul- thats nuts!

@ Lev- yeah, mobile mcdonalds. Our armor was inferior for the longest time because our former VP had his fingers in the company with the contract, and tho troops were getting killed and injured because of this, refused to look elsewhere. our armor situations have gotten much better over the years since then. They are phasing out the hummer, have new vehicles that better withstand IED's and now we have robots doing lots of the work.

As far as funding goes, our federal govt is operating with over a $14 trillion debt! if we piss the wrong countries off, we will collapse

There is bad socialism growing in the USA, everyone wants handouts and doesn't want to trim the budget.